Author Topic: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks  (Read 6040 times)

rrnut282

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2019, 06:04:37 PM »
I wonder if this has something to do with all the small customers PSR says to pound sand?  The cycle is almost a year old.  The truckers are doing well. 
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MSchwiebert

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2019, 08:31:53 AM »
Kind of an "urban legend" that trucking is doing well as a result of PSR.  They are in a "Freight Recession" as well.

https://www.truckinginfo.com/336158/is-trucking-in-the-midst-of-a-freight-recession

IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2019, 07:34:19 PM »
It's getting worse
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ckpcpqq

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2019, 12:02:33 AM »
It's getting worse

The reasons:

1. The tariffs, and with the scheduled increase coming soon the effects will only get worse with time.  Up to now, importers have increased their imported goods hoping to stock up as much as they could before tariffs take hold.  But it's only a matter of a couple of months before the full effect of the tariffs are felt.

2. The continuing decline in the economies of the Chinese and European Union nations.  Also, the decline in manufacturing here in the USA.  These declines were occurring before the tariffs were imposed.

3. The strength of the US dollar vs. the currencies of China and the EU, which makes our exports more expensive.  The weakening of the Chinese currency helps protect them from the effects of the US tariffs.


 
« Last Edit: September 05, 2019, 11:37:22 AM by ckpcpqq »

IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2019, 10:55:41 AM »
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. ó Rail volumes continued their declines in the latest week according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Week 39 of 2019 was no better than the ones that preceded it as a number of demand headwinds overhang the rail industry. Total U.S. carloads declined 7.4% year-over-year to 529,336 units in the week ended September 28, with metallic ores and metals (-17.9%), grain (-17.8%) and coal (-11.5%) posting double-digit declines. The 6.9% decline in U.S. intermodal shipments for the week was in-line with broader declines.
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Rick

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2019, 01:28:12 PM »
Class 1ís also have set a new record low for employment. 


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IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2019, 12:11:30 PM »
Carloads on the railroads remained under water in the first week of the fourth quarter 2019, which ended on October 5. Total traffic on U.S. railroads declined 7.1% to 515,061 carloads compared to the same week in 2018 according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
A weaker industrial economy, loose truckload (TL) capacity and lower bulk loadings have been the primary culprits.
Week 40ís declines in U.S. carloads continued across all modes except for this yearís top performers Ė chemicals (+4%) year-over-year in the week and petroleum and petroleum products (+0.5%). Double-digit declines were seen in metallic ores and metals (-14.8%), coal (-13.6%), grain (-13.2%) and motor vehicles and parts (-10.8%). Intermodal (-5.8%) remained in its depressed state.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/week-40-picks-up-where-third-quarter-left-off
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IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2019, 07:15:28 PM »
CSX (CSX) reports quarterly earnings October 16th. Analysts expect revenue of $2.99 billion and EPS of $1.02. The revenue estimate implies a 4% decline Y/Y. Investors should focus on the following key items.
Declining Rail Traffic
Industry rail traffic is in decline, which does not bode well for CSX. This likely explains why the company's revenue is expected to decline in Q3. U.S. rail traffic and intermodal units fell 6.4% Y/Y for the month of September. Through the first 39 weeks of the year, combined U.S. traffic and intermodal units fell 3.9% Y/Y. Until total rail traffic picks up CSX could face further headwinds.
In Q2 2019, CSX generated revenue of $3.1 billion, down 1% Y/Y. Carloads fell 4% Y/Y, while average selling price ("ASP") was up 3%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4296320-csx-prepare-dismal-q3-results
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Rick

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #28 on: October 15, 2019, 07:59:31 PM »
Utu/smart came out a couple weeks ago saying the rail industry is now in a recession. 


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IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #29 on: October 16, 2019, 09:10:10 PM »
Some good news for CSX stockholders

CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) +2.6% after-hours following better than expected Q3 earnings, highlighted by a new company record operating ratio of 56.8% vs. 58.7% in the prior-year quarter.
CSX says Q3 revenue fell 5% Y/Y to $2.98B, as merchandise revenue growth was more than offset by declines in the coal and intermodal units, but expenses decreased 8% to $1.69B, driven by continued efficiency gains and volume-related savings.
Q3 operating income came in roughly flat at $1.29B compared to the same period last year.
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ckpcpqq

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #30 on: October 16, 2019, 11:07:45 PM »
Some good news for CSX stockholders

CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) +2.6% after-hours following better than expected Q3 earnings, highlighted by a new company record operating ratio of 56.8% vs. 58.7% in the prior-year quarter.
CSX says Q3 revenue fell 5% Y/Y to $2.98B, as merchandise revenue growth was more than offset by declines in the coal and intermodal units, but expenses decreased 8% to $1.69B, driven by continued efficiency gains and volume-related savings.
Q3 operating income came in roughly flat at $1.29B compared to the same period last year.

Net income (or earnings) declined by 4% and traffic volume (carloadings + intermodal) fell 5%.  But Wall St was expecting worse, so the stock went up in after hours trading.

Here's a snippet from a report by Bloomberg:

"The company reiterated its expectation for sales to decrease as much as 2% in 2019, a sign that the guidance cut it announced in July wasnít the cautious approach management billed it as but an accurate assessment of a gloomier reality."

Rick

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2019, 08:42:33 PM »
As long as carloads keep decreasing, operating ratio should get better.  Much easier to move less freight effectively than it is to move a lot.  Thatís for any RR.   Since railroad employment is at an all time low, it should bode well for the stock holders until carloads pick back up. 


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TomB

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2019, 10:05:16 AM »
We are overdue for a recession...

DRLOCO

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #33 on: October 20, 2019, 01:25:22 PM »
I'm starting to see stored centerbeam lumber cars.  Over the years, it's been true of what the old heads would say when you saw lumber cars idled--a recession was imminent. 
I know it's just a small signal, and that we are indeed overdue for a recession. Lumber cars, specifically, represent what the future housing market will look like, stored cars=no lumber needed to build houses nobody will buy.  SO, with that, I'd say that it's time to hunker down...and maybe not buy that big expensive pickup truck  ;D

I think this has little to do with PSR.  I know it's sexy to blame everything on PSR these days, and for the most part, PSR is a dumpster fire of an idea that seems to surface every 25 years (read Merging Lines by R. Saunders--JENKS at the MoPac did this "cut to profit" thing, but it wasn't called PSR).
Most customers  that use rail service now are "stuck" with the railroads, because even with the horrendous service, they are still the most cost efficient way to move freight for them. The tariff/trade disputes, and even to a lesser extent what's going on across the pond and generally rattled markets are causing this to form into a recession...


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trafficcritic

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2019, 02:50:42 PM »
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending October 26, 2019.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 513,147 carloads and intermodal units, down 8.8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending October 26 were 243,321 carloads, down 9.4 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 269,826 containers and trailers, down 8.3 percent compared to 2018.

Source: https://www.rtands.com/freight/aar-traffic-report-for-week-ending-october-26-2019/

IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2019, 05:43:51 PM »
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. ó In September, the U.S. operations of the Class I railroads employed the fewest number of workers in years, according to data from the Surface Transportation Board. The railroads had 136,865 employees on their rosters in September, which is the lowest monthly total in 2019 and the lowest total since January 2012, which is the earliest monthly data that FreightWaves has available. Septemberís total is 7.6% lower than September 2018 and down 1.7% from August https://www.freightwaves.com/news/u-s-rail-headcount-reaches-new-low
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IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2019, 03:58:19 PM »
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. ó U.S. rail traffic tumbled 8.1% in October as weakness in the industrial economy put pressure on rail volumes. Freight railroads in the U.S. originated nearly 2.56 million carloads and intermodal units in October, which is an 8.1% drop from October 2018. Of that, U.S. carloads fell 8.4% to 1.22 million carloads, while U.S. intermodal units slipped 7.8% to 1.33 million intermodal containers and trailers.



Source  https://www.freightwaves.com/news/economic-slump-weighs-on-october-rail-volumes
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trafficcritic

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #37 on: November 27, 2019, 12:36:51 PM »
AAR: U.S. Rail Traffic Sees Huge Gain
https://www.railwayage.com/freight/class-i/aar-u-s-rail-traffic-sees-huge-gain/
Quote
The 47th time is the charm.

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ended Nov. 23, 2019, and for the first time in a long time traffic saw a healthy uptick.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 521,927 carloads and intermodal units, up 10.6% compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ended Nov. 23 were 251,901 carloads, up 7.6% compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 270,026 containers and trailers, up 13.5% compared to 2018.

Nine of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. They included commodities such as nonmetallic minerals, up 7,573 carloads, to 33,069; chemicals, up 3,972 carloads, to 31,834; and motor vehicles and parts, up 3,625 carloads, to 17,757. One commodity group posted a decrease compared with the same week in 2018: coal, down 6,205 carloads, to 75,859.

For the first 47 weeks of 2019, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,829,176 carloads, down 4.2% from the same point last year; and 12,519,862 intermodal units, down 4.3% from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2019 was 24,349,038 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 4.2% compared to last year.

IndyHog

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #38 on: November 27, 2019, 12:41:45 PM »
A little too late for some

Employee headcount levels for the U.S. rail operations of Class I railroads hit a new low in October amid a slump in U.S. rail traffic and the transition to precision scheduled railroading (PSR).
The total number of employees working for Class I railroads in the U.S. was 134,582 last month, which is the fewest for 2019, according to data collected by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board. That is 9.5% lower than October 2018 and nearly 1.7% down from September of this year.

Source    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/class-i-rail-employment-hits-new-low
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SimonTek

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Re: Rail Traffic down 20 consecutive weeks
« Reply #39 on: December 08, 2019, 03:40:56 AM »
I often wonder about how often I hear, "you don't provide enough traffic, so we're not servicing you." After a while all of those one or 2 cars a week runs add up, and could've brought in a lot of revenue overall.